Devout Catholics in Three Battleground States Key to Trump’s Re-Election

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A review of several polls shows that devout Catholics support President Trump but need to convince other Catholics in what will be a close race this fall.

According to a poll released on Feb. 17 by the Zogby polling organization, Catholic voters prefer the Trump/Pence ticket by a margin much greater than other demographic groups. This is especially true for devout Catholics.

The Zogby poll showed that a Democratic ticket headed by socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren could beat Trump-Pence, hypothetically. However, that would be a squeaker because it falls within the margin of error, 48% to 45%. With 7% of likely voters undecided, it is uncertain how a divided electorate may turn. Once again, Trump may lose the popular vote and have to rely on the Electoral College to win the White House. Other polls also show Sanders and the other Democratic contenders beating Trump in November.

Zogby showed that women favor a Sanders-Warren, as do union members, independents and the college-educated and young voters. And while Trump/Pence is favored by males, small-town dwellers and even NASCAR fans, it is among Catholic voters where the statistical difference between Democrats and Republican is greatest. The poll showed that Catholics, nationwide, support Trump/Pence by 53% as opposed to 42% for Sanders/Warren.

Catholics, in general, have shown a turn toward the GOP in recent presidential elections. The Pew organization calculated that 52% of Catholics voted for Trump in 2016. It showed that this represented a three-point drop among white Catholics voting for a Democratic candidate and an eight-point drop among Hispanic Catholics when Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012. In 2016, 58% of white evangelical Christians pulled the lever for Trump.

RealClear/EWTN Opinion Research polls examined U.S. Catholics regarding their Church and politics. More than half accept most or all of the teachings of the Church. Fifty-six percent of the just over 1,500 persons polled responded that the Democratic Party "represents my values," while 47% responded likewise for the GOP. It found that 47% of Catholics also approve of Trump, but among the most devout Catholics, that figure jumps by 16 percentage points.

The poll found that 18% of Catholics accept all the teachings of the Church and are core supporters for Trump. Half are Republicans, while about a third are Democrats. Among the less devout, it is the reverse: 47% are Democrats and 30% are Republicans.

Trump has appointed two pro-life justices to the Supreme Court, as well as a number of conservative judges to lower federal courts. By speaking at this year's March for Life and getting endorsements from pro-life activists such as Fr. Frank Pavone and Marjorie Dannenfelser, Trump has significantly burnished his appeal among pro-life Catholics and evangelical Christians.

Challenges for Devout Catholics in Breaking the 'Blue Wall'

It is in three battleground states where devout Catholics will have to work to ensure Trump's re-election. In a new survey by the Elections Research Center, Democratic presidential contenders are tied with or slightly leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Socialist Sanders has a sizable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. All three are up for grabs in November.

Speaking for ERC, Professor Barry Burden said: "Trump is in a more difficult position in Michigan than the other two states, but each of the Midwest battlegrounds could be won by either party, almost regardless of who becomes the Democratic nominee."

President Obama was re-elected in Michigan, for example, with 450,000 votes in 2012. But Trump won Michigan by just 10,704 votes in 2016, which had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1992. Trump won in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by similarly narrow margins by appealing to working-class voters. All three states are notable for their high percentages of Catholics and because they are part of the 18 so-called Blue Wall states that had voted for Democrat presidential candidates in six consecutive elections and represented the 242 Electoral College votes that Democrats mistakenly expected would elect Hillary Clinton in 2016. By winning those three states, Trump broke through the Blue Wall to win in the Electoral College even though he lost the popular vote.

Pollster Jonathan Zogby told the Washington Examiner:

Sanders and Warren could win the popular vote, but Trump and Pence still have the advantage of the coalition of working-class and blue-collar voters they made inroads with in swing states: Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which could produce a similar outcome as 2016, in which Trump/Pence just win the Electoral College and reelection in 2020.

What Catholics Must Do

Democrats and Republicans in these battleground states are leaving nothing to chance and are actively organizing trained canvassers and volunteers. And devout Catholics can encourage undecided Catholics to vote for Trump on the basis of a shared belief that the current presidency is more closely aligned with basic Christian teachings than the Democrats, who uniformly endorse infanticide and the LGBTQ agenda.

Clergy should not fear preaching about abortion from the pulpit, nor should they fear losing nonprofit status should they merely inform parishioners about "Democrats' extreme pro-abortion policies," said Adolfo Castañeda of Human Life International in an interview with Church Militant. Lay Catholics, he said, can inform their fellow Catholics about Trump's record in nominating pro-life justices to the Supreme Court and his encouragement of the pro-life cause.

Castañeda said that pro-lifers should let others know about Democrats' "extreme" positions, which advocate infanticide and the LGBTQ agenda. He said that voter guides can be distributed at churches to inform parishioners. "Priests who preach Church doctrine on one hand, and then merely inform parishioners about the candidates' positions, are not violating any law," he said.

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