Evangelicals for Trump?

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By Richard Ducayne

Donald Trump may not be dominating the Evangelical vote as some media have portrayed. Trump may have won pluralities of evangelicals in some states; this doesn't mean, however, that Evangelicals solidly support him as a whole.

Last Super Tuesday, exit polls of Republican voters showed two out of three Evangelicals voted for someone other than Donald Trump. This doesn't bode well for him in a general election, knowing that these poll results are strictly Republican, and Trump still only receives a plurality. This early campaign season data suggests that in the general election, Trump will not get more than 20 percent of Evangelicals.

When voters were asked how much religion matters when they vote for a candidate, they were given two answers to choose from: "A great deal" or "Somewhat." Slightly over half responded "A great deal," and these voters did not even give Trump the plurality of the votes, choosing either Cruz or Rubio. Slightly under half, however, responded "Somewhat," and slightly under half of that crowd voted for someone other than Trump.

On Super Tuesday, Trump did better among people with no religious motivation (41%), yet he had his worst numbers with people who were the most motivated by religion (30%).

The situation is almost the complete opposite for Ted Cruz. He performed best among the most religiously motivated (34%) and worst among people who had no religious motivation (13%). Trump actually did best among people who didn't care about religion at all and worst among people who actually did care about their religion.

Voters who preferred "shared values" in a candidate favored Cruz four out of 10 times. Trump, however, only received one out of 10 votes on that score.

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