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Recent Senate projections show an uphill climb for Republicans. However, that's far from a guarantee for the Democrats.
In tonight's In-Depth Report, Church Militant's Joseph Enders breaks down the current chances of the GOP winning back the Senate.
The United States Senate is up for grabs in November. Thirty-four states are holding Senate elections this cycle, and RealClearPolitics is already predicting Republicans will wind up with 47 seats to the Democrats' 46. This means seven seats are up for grabs. But three of these toss-up states — New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Arizona — have yet to hold their primary elections.
Jim Ellis: "It's really hard to predict what's going to happen because three of the states haven't had primaries and there are contested primaries in each — Arizona and Wisconsin in August and New Hampshire in September."
In Wisconsin, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson is fighting for his seat against leading primary challenger Mandela Barnes.
Jim Ellis: "He is one of the more underestimated candidates in the Republican stable. Back in 2016, he was supposed to lose to former senator Russ Feingold, who he had defeated in 2010. There were 33 polls conducted. Ron Johnson was losing in 32 of the 33, but won by three points."
In Arizona, Trump-endorsed Blake Masters is up 10 points in GOP primary polls, but there is no recent polling on whether Masters can oust Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly.
Jim Ellis: "This is one of the premier contests in the whole country that will help determine which party will hold the majority in the new Congress, and all eyes will be on Arizona after that Aug. 2 primary."
In New Hampshire, the most recent data has Republican Chuck Morse two points ahead of incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan.
Jim Ellis: "They have the latest primary of all. The Republicans won't have a nominee until Sept. 13. The state Senate president Chuck Morse is the leader right now, but it is a crowded field. I think Sen. Hassan is one of the most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot this year."
With Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote, the upper chamber currently breaks 51 to 50 for the Democrats.
Jim Ellis: "The Senate is going to come down to one or two seats either way. And it's very important as to which party has the majority. ... But having that majority to control the agenda — to control the timing and to set the stage for 2024 presidential campaign — is extremely important."
Though Republicans have more seats to protect in 2022, the Democrats' slumping popularity provides a unique chance for the GOP to win back all of Congress on Election Day.
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