Poll: Trump Leads in Battleground States

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by Kristine Christlieb  •  ChurchMilitant.com  •  July 28, 2020   

10 states in play

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DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) - A new poll is showing President Trump leading in seven of 10 battleground states.

American Principles Project (APP) and SPRY Strategies released poll results July 22 revealing that predictions of Trump's defeat are overstated.

Terry Schilling, executive director of the APP, summarized the poll findings: "It is clear from our polling that the reports of President Trump's impending electoral doom are greatly exaggerated."

The poll involved 10 states in which either the presidential race or a senate race is competitive. In seven of 10, President Trump is leading. 

STATE TRUMP BIDEN POINT SPREAD
       
TRUMP LEADS      
Georgia 49 46 3
Kentucky 60 34 26
Michigan 50 45 5
Montana 52 42 10
North Carolina 49 46 3
Pennsylvania 48 47 1
Texas 49 45 4
       
BIDEN LEADS      
Arizona 45 49 4
Iowa 46 48 2
Wisconsin 45 46 1


In battleground states where President Trump leads, he has the thinnest margin in Pennsylvania, followed by Georgia and North Carolina. In states where Biden leads, Trump's greatest opportunity to overtake the Democrat is in Wisconsin, followed by Iowa.

Results were particularly surprising in Michigan, where the poll shows Trump leading by five points. Eyes are especially on Michigan's numbers because Trump's razor-thin 2016 victory over Hillary (.023%) sent all of the state's 16 electoral college votes to Trump and contributed significantly to his election to the presidency. Experts believe Trump won because the Republican's support among working-class voters was underestimated. 

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In this year's election, it could be Michigan's black voters who are the underestimated Trump supporters. Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group was the only outfit to predict a Trump win in Michigan in 2016, is showing that support from black voters has nearly doubled since 2016. 

In this year's election, it could be Michigan's black voters who are the underestimated Trump supporters.

In comments to Church Militant, Cahaly explained the significance of his recent polling results not only for Michigan but also for the nation as a whole.

"This finding bodes well for Trump as Republican presidential candidates typically need roughly 10% of the black vote to be seated in the oval office," he told Church Militant.

Outdated Polling Methods

In a June tweet, President Trump decried media reporting on poll results.

"The Fake News and phony Fake Suppression Polls have never been worse. The Lamestream Media has gone CRAZY!" the president tweeted.

Church Militant asked APP communications director Paul Dupont if other polls are deliberately misrepresenting their findings or employing polling methods that skew results.

Dupont doesn't think poll results are deliberately manipulated. Instead, he believes most polling firms rely on outdated methods. 

"Our method employs a mix of live-person interviews and more anonymous online options," he said. He tied their strategy to recent polling results from the CATO Institute showing that 62% of Americans say they hold political views they are afraid to share.

"We added the online dimension because we believe there are voters who are less willing to admit their candidate preference to a live person but who can be more open with an impersonal option," he clarified.

Voters Oppose Media on Issues

In addition to candidates, the APP poll also asked voters about key political issues. Dupont said results show the media is out of step with public opinion: "People are very much on the opposite side of what mainstream media suggests." 

The poll showed that people had a favorable opinion of Black Lives Matter, but when questions were asked about controversial aspects of the organization's agenda — for example, its hostility toward the nuclear family — voters were less supportive. Dupont told Church Militant that on the issues-related questions, "strong majorities skew conservative."

Strong majorities skew conservative.

The results show the issues on which American voters have the strongest opinions:

Voters hate the idea of biological males competing against female athletes in women's sports. They strongly oppose minors being subjected to sex changes or gender conversion therapy. They want to protect kids from online pornography, and they want Big Tech companies to allow free speech and free expression on their platforms.

Dupont believes these are the issues likely to dominate political debate over the next four years.
 

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