Dem Analyst: Trump Victory a ‘Red Mirage’

News: Campaign 2020US News
by Kristine Christlieb  •  •  September 3, 2020   

Supreme Court may decide outcome

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DETROIT ( - Political analysts are predicting that an election night victory for Trump will disappear as mail-in ballots are slowly but steadily counted in the ensuing days.

In a Wednesday interview with an analytics firm funded by Michael Bloomberg, it was suggested that Trump is likely to win in a landslide on election night. But this victory will — they say — only be a "red mirage," one that will dissipate in the weeks that follow as mail-in votes hand the victory to Biden.

Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Hawkfish (the group Bloomberg hired to do the analysis) summarized the findings:

The reason we talk about a red mirage is in fact because we believe that, on election night, we are going to see Donald Trump in a stronger position than the reality actually is. We are sounding the alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump. That is likely to be what we see.

Hawkfish's conclusions about election night are based on the firm's prediction that 4 in 10 voters will vote by mail. Its experts are saying that, on election night, Trump will win 408 electoral votes to Biden's 130. Yet, according to Hawkfish, the victory will be illusory.

Josh Mendelsohn

According to Mendelsohn, "After 75% of mail-in votes are counted, days and potentially weeks later, Hawkfish's models predict the race may flip to put Biden in the lead. This particular model has Biden with a blowout victory of 334 electoral votes to Trump's 204."

New York Times' Doomsday Scenario

The New York Times is promoting a variation on this theme, calling it the "Democrats' doomsday scenario for election night." The newspaper worries in print that Trump will "prematurely" claim victory based solely on election day results, not waiting for mail-in ballots to be counted.

"Mr. Trump has never let go of a baseless accusation that Democrats use mail voting to 'steal' elections, a piece of disinformation he has promoted all year, including at the Republican National Convention," says the Times.

The article then connects the need for mail-in voting with the Wuhan virus.

"Now, with the coronavirus pandemic driving an explosion in absentee voting, and polls suggesting that far more Democrats than Republicans plan to vote by mail, a nightmare scenario haunts Democratic strategists and elected officials," the newspaper reports.

The Economist Says Supreme Court Is Deciding

This week's issue of The Economist is predicting the U.S. Supreme Court is deciding right now who will be America's next president. The prestigious magazine joins the Times and Hawkfish in tying the election outcome to mail-in ballots.

According to the article, the Supreme Court won't be involved the way it was in the 2000 election case of Bush v. Gore. It explains the court's unique role in this year's election.

"The nine justices are already shaping the race through small decisions on voting rules, reached without a hearing and often with little written explanation," The Economist reports.

These election-related cases are not following the normal pattern in which there are years of lower court litigation, the article explains:

They are packaged not as slow-moving petitions on the ordinary docket but as emergency applications on a so-called "shadow docket" where justices hand down edicts with little or no explanation after only partial briefing, no live hearing and quick deliberations.

Democrats are fighting for universal mail-in voting. They are proposing that all registered voters receive an unsolicited ballot in the mail which can be returned by mail or in person. The battle is over ballots that are counted after election day.

In Nevada, the Trump administration is fighting to prevent the state's plans to allow votes submitted after election day to be counted. In Pennsylvania, however, Democrats are battling to ensure that votes submitted after election day will be counted.

In Nevada, the Trump administration is fighting to prevent the state's plans to allow votes submitted after election day to be counted.

In crucial states like Wisconsin, problems with mail-in ballots already have been uncovered. Breitbart reports on the issues that have arisen.

"Data from 11 cities in Wisconsin, published in May, shows that at least 30,000 mail-in votes were counted after election day," the news site said.

Hawkfish warns voters that rejection rates for mail-in ballots are higher than they are for in-person voting. The firm has advice for people who want to give their ballots the best chance of being counted.

If a voter must mail in his ballot, the firm says to "be extra careful about voting early enough and following all the instructions to the letter."

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