Senate Forecast

News: Video ReportsCampaign 2022
by Joseph Enders  •  •  July 12, 2022   

Will Republicans win Congress?

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The midterms are right around the corner, and already we see the polls trending red. In tonight's In-Depth Report, Church Militant's Joseph Enders talks to Church Militant Political Analyst Jim Ellis about the GOP's chances at winning back the Senate.

The Senate is up for grabs, and Republicans need a big win to take back control of Congress in November.

Jim Ellis:

The Senate is obviously important in terms of capturing a majority and controlling the agenda. With the agenda brings the control of the schedule and control of what bills are voted upon. So, it's very important. The Republicans look to be in good shape to take the House majority, and having both houses versus the Democratic president would be a major plus for them.

According to Rasmussen Reports, Republicans currently hold an eight-point advantage over the Democrats if the elections were held today, 48% to 40%. But it isn't that simple.

Jim Ellis: 

The Republicans have to protect 21 Senate seats in this particular election, and Democrats only 14. And as you all know, senators have six-year terms and a third of the Senate comes up every two years. So, in this particular class of senators on the ballot, we see the Democrats have an advantage because they simply have to protect less.

If Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wishes to regain control of the upper chamber, there are key races that must be won.

Jim Ellis: The senate is tied at 50-50, so either party gaining a net of just one would give them an outright majority. And so the Republicans though, the problem is though they really only have four solid offensive opportunities: New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has a strong chance of victory against incumbent fake Catholic senator Catherine Cortez Masto.

Jim Ellis: 

With the Hispanic vote beginning to move a little bit closer to Republicans — and we see these polls that show President Biden's approval rating among Hispanics maybe as low as 26% — the population in Nevada now, the Hispanic population, has grown to 31%. And since it only takes a few votes to flip that state over to the Republicans, any increase in Hispanic support that the Republicans are able to gain could be enough.

But in states with open Senate seats like Pennsylvania, things aren't so rosy. Dr. Mehmet Oz is trailing slightly behind Democrat John Fetterman according to most recent polls, but it's still anyone's race.

Jim Ellis: 

You know both parties have problems here. It took almost a month to determine that Oz actually won the Republican nomination because it was so close. And then, right before the primary, John Fetterman suffered a serious stroke, and so he is yet to be on the campaign trail, still recovering from that.

Although the political horizon looks menacing for Joe Biden and promising for Republicans, questions remain as to whether the GOP can lay claim to the Senate majority come Nov. 8. 

Trust in the U.S. government has been plummeting in recent polls, with faith in Congress in particular cut nearly in half since 2021.

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