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Pre-election Vote

Bad news for Biden

November 5, 2020  0
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Historically, both early votes and absentee votes have been a power play for the Democrats.

So far, Americans have already cast close to 100 million votes, due mainly to media-hyped fears over the pandemic, with the majority of voters being Democrats in key battleground states:

  • In Florida, Dems cast 56% of ballots compared to 43% cast by Republicans
  • In North Carolina, Dems cast 40% of ballots compared to 30% cast by Republicans
  • In Pennsylvania, Dems cast 70% of ballots compared to 20% cast by Republicans
  • In Arizona, Dems cast 42% of ballots compared to 34% cast by Republicans

However, these Democrat majorities do not necessarily equal votes for Joe Biden.

In 2016, 9% of Democrats voted for Donald Trump.

Amid Biden's corruption scandal, one of Google's trending searches has been "change my vote" — the highest volume of the searches coming from Arizona, Florida, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

This suggests early voters in swing states are already reconsidering, which if the polls are right, are mostly Democrat voters.

And in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, you can legally change your vote on your absentee ballot after it is cast.

Also, numbers from early voting fail to recognize that Republicans and Democrats are virtually tied in numbers of Americans identifying with each party: 29% for Republicans, to 31% for Democrats, according to recent Gallup polling. 

Independents actually make up the largest share at 38%. Of those, 9% more lean Democrat.

This measure is laser-accurate when it comes to predicting the popular vote, but not the electoral vote. States like New York, California and Illinois are overwhelmingly liberal and skew the numbers.

But battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin are not.

These are the voters that typically decide the presidency, and both candidates remain in a dead heat in these states.

Looking to Election Day voting, Republicans are expected to vastly outperform Democrats.

The question is, which voting strategy will win the day — Democrats getting out early or Republicans flooding polling places on Tuesday?

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